The New Patriotic Party (NPP) says the fiscal surplus being touted by government ahead of Thursday’s 2026 Mid-Year Budget Review is not the result of strong revenue performance or structural reforms, but of deep cuts to capital spending and failure to release funds for critical sectors.
Addressing a press conference on the economy, on Wednesday July 22, the Chairman of the NPP’s Policy Co-ordination Committee, Kojo Oppong Nkrumah, said the Minority will assess the Review on three tests: how the numbers were achieved, whether they are sustainable, and what they have cost ordinary Ghanaians.
Speaking ahead of the budget review, Mr. Oppong Nkrumah said the party had been reviewing published data on the economy and, as a responsible opposition, was obliged to share its findings and flag worrying signals.
According to him, the government’s presentation is expected to claim that Ghana has moved from stabilization to growth. But he said available data tells a different story.
How the 2025 surplus was made
The government is expected to cite a 2025 primary surplus of 2.6% of GDP on commitment basis against a target of 1.5%.
However, the NPP said revenue missed its revised target by 4.7%, and the surplus was only achieved because expenditure was compressed by 13.8%.
“Savings from delayed capital execution are not structural reform. They are postponement,” Mr. Oppong Nkrumah said.
He pointed to first quarter 2026 data from the Bank of Ghana’s May report to back the claim. Spending stood at GH¢62.1 billion against a target of GH¢78.8 billion, representing a 21.2% shortfall.
Capital expenditure was 41.9% below target, foreign-financed projects saw only GH¢0.6 billion released out of GH¢5.3 billion, goods and services were 35.3% below target, and grants to health, education and the districts were 19.1% below.
“The one protected line was the wage bill,” he said. “Independent analysis calls this the weakest first-quarter execution since 2017: roughly GH¢24 billion unexecuted in three months. Roads, schools and hospitals carried the cut. The payroll did not.”
On arrears, the NPP noted that while the Finance Minister reported GH¢67.5 billion in inherited arrears, with GH¢45.4 billion validated by a joint audit, only GH¢13 billion was allocated in the 2025 Budget.
By November 2025, the road sector backlog alone was about GH¢40 billion. The party questioned the Minister’s claim that only GH¢11.5 billion has been cleared with no new payables accrued.
It also flagged revenue underperformance. First-quarter revenue missed target by 4.5%. Oil revenue fell from about GH¢19.8 billion in 2024 to GH¢8.7 billion in 2025, with Q1 oil receipts this year 37.6% below target.
“Fiscal space created by under-execution is not fiscal space. It is deferral,” Mr. Oppong Nkrumah stressed.
The durability question
The second test, according to the NPP, is whether the current numbers can last.
The party pointed to the IMF’s sequencing, with the Executive Board expected to approve the final ECF review and a new Policy Coordination Instrument around July 27.
It argued that opting for a non-financing PCI after an ECF programme is an admission that an external anchor is still needed, with the Fund’s own May statement flagging SOEs, contingent liabilities, quasi-fiscal activities and gold-price reliance as risks.
It also argued that growth is driven by gold, not policy. The government will tout Q1 growth of 6.4%, but industry growth jumped from 1.9% to 6.9% in one quarter on the back of gold mining, with export earnings hitting a record $31.1 billion in 2025 on historically high gold prices.
“If gold returned to its five-year average price, what would growth be, what would the trade surplus be, what would the primary balance be?” he asked, calling for the Review to publish a sensitivity analysis.
On inflation and the cedi, the party said prices never stopped rising, only rose more slowly, and are now rising faster again with three consecutive monthly increases to 5.3% in June, driven by fuel costs from the Middle East conflict.
The cedi, it said, has depreciated between 8.4% and 10.3% this year depending on the data source.
The NPP also flagged inconsistencies in debt figures. While the Bank of Ghana reports debt at roughly 45.1% of GDP as of May 2026, the IMF projects 53% by end of year.
This, it said, puts at risk Ghana’s program target of 55% debt-to-GDP by end of 2028, especially since last year’s improvement was partly due to debt restructuring under the NPP administration which delivered $5 billion in outright cancellation and $4.7 billion in cashflow savings, and partly an exchange-rate valuation effect.
“What the currency gave, the currency can take back,” he noted.
The party further described the Bank of Ghana’s balance sheet as a fiscal time bomb. The Bank reported a 2025 loss of GH¢15.63 billion, but the Minority’s analysis puts the full loss at GH¢44.5 billion when netting off one-off gold sales, with independent analysis putting negative equity at roughly GH¢96 billion, about 8% of GDP. It said the IMF has named the Domestic Gold Purchase Programme as a driver of these losses.
It welcomed the Governor’s announcement at the 131st Monetary Policy Committee meeting that the central bank has ceased pre-financing GoldBod’s gold purchases effective July 1, saying it confirms warnings the Minority had raised about quasi-fiscal operations.
The IMF, the NPP said, quantified losses on the Gold-for-Reserves programme at about $214 million by end-September 2025.
“Stopping the bleeding does not restore the blood,” Mr. Oppong Nkrumah said.
The credibility question
The final test, he said, is credibility.
The NPP claimed announcements consistently outrun releases, citing an instance where Finance announced over GH¢1.6 billion released to Agriculture in June, while Agriculture officials put authorisation at GH¢910 million and actual disbursement near GH¢453 million. It also claimed Right-to-Information reports indicate 76 to 90% of Big Push road contracts, worth over GH¢70 billion, were sole-sourced.
On jobs, the party said the 24-Hour Economy promises 1.7 million jobs with a direct 2026 allocation of GH¢110 million, while roughly 160,000 jobs announced are tied to MoUs, not operating projects.
“A memorandum of understanding is not a payslip,” he said.
The NPP also noted that while about 98% of all debt eligible for restructuring had been negotiated when it left office, including $20.3 billion under the Domestic Debt Exchange, the remaining 2%, about $2.7 billion, remains unresolved nearly two years later. It questioned the status of the promised independent Fiscal Council and Debt Management Office.
It further alleged that barely nine weeks after the IMF staff concluded their final review mission in mid-May, loan agreements are already arriving before Parliament.
“We were told the days of borrowing were over. Yet the Executive Board has not even met, and the requests for new debt are already before Parliament,” he said.
What the Review must disclose
The NPP listed eight disclosures it expects from the Finance Minister on Thursday:
1. Actual half-year execution by line item against allotment.
2. A full decomposition of the primary surplus.
3. One reconciled debt-to-GDP figure and methodology.
4. A current, audited arrears stock with a credible payment schedule.
5. Verified payroll employment for the Big Push and the 24-Hour Economy, and project-level procurement disclosure.
6. The true loss figure and a resolution plan for the Bank of Ghana.
7. Sensitivity analysis on gold prices, fuel costs and the cedi.
8. The status of the Fiscal Council and independent Debt Management Office, and a financed growth plan.
“A country cannot build growth on unspent budgets, unpaid contractors, disputed debt numbers and jobs that exist on paper. On Thursday, the Minority will be in the chamber, measuring the Minister’s statement line by line against his government’s own published data. Ghanaians deserve numbers, not narrative,” Mr. Oppong Nkrumah said.
By Sampson Kumah Ifeetwube Taachaa Elvis
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